A Fear And Phobia Of The Future.
In a recent survey of over 7,000 people from six countries in North America and Europe by Ipsos Mori, respondents from the United States were the most concerned about their future.
The study found that more than half (55%) of Americans felt "quite" or "very" concerned about the future. In comparison, only 9% of French respondents reported feeling this level of concern about the future. As for Canadians, 38% report feeling nervous about their future. The most concerned group? Americans are three times more anxious about the future than those in Italy and Spain.
Although this study focused on the fears of Americans and Canadians, it does not provide any insight into what other people are worried about. This is where the Ipsos Mori survey moves into territory that is not too different from the more recent Horizon Poll 2008, a study conducted by Instituut Voor de Statistiek (IS). According to the IS report: "At first glance, there could be no difference between Europeans and North Americans. However, on closer inspection, this statement also holds. When looking at certain groups, it turns out that Europeans are more afraid than North Americans. People in the most technologically advanced countries worry more about their future than those in less advanced countries."
Why do people living in advanced nations worry more? The answer: They have learned to live with the fear of technology. For example, in Canada and the United States, with our modern technology and highly developed transportation systems, there is no place we'd rather be than where we live daily. In Germany and Japan, however, it is not so easy for us to forget about the fact that our world has changed beyond recognition over the past twenty years. And thus, reality grinds us down. The threat of new technology is a threat to the very core of our identities. That is why it becomes so frightening that we may be supplanted by a new, technology-dependent identity within the next generation.
It is also important to note that in countries where old traditions live on in some form (i.e., Russia and Japan), the fear of technology can be even more tangible. They are not as familiar with modern-day innovations such as cell phones, computers, and television sets, let alone their processing power. As such they might be more afraid than their counterparts living in modern industrialized societies whose technology's presence has conditioned them into a sort of "technology acceptance" (i.e. acceptance of the current state of things).
But why should Europeans be more afraid than North Americans? One answer might be that this is simply a functioning of the older European heritage, which tends to revere the past and fear the future. On top of this, there are other factors at play as well. For example, Canada is among the most urbanized nations in the world. At the same time, Europe still only has a relatively small percentage of its citizens living in large urban centres (like Tokyo and Paris). This may also contribute to their more significant concern about technology.
In Japan and many Asian countries (mainly Hong Kong), increased life expectancy leads many people to look towards their grandchildren and what they will become. An individual's future identity is formed through the recollection of their memories--the memories of their past and toil to earn a living, their children who succeed them as well as their grandchildren. Most people look forward to this "memory" as the entity that will survive beyond themselves. Thus, there is a strong desire to see that the future generations will be better off than their predecessors--a wish for better health care, welfare, education and healthcare services for future generations.
In Japan and Korea, this "unconditional care for the future" has made the population more concerned about technological progress. These old dynastic traditions have become dominant in shaping their view of the future. The originality of their practice has made it possible for people to remain in the "old" way of doing things and to avoid integration into the modern world. As such, these societies have succeeded in keeping themselves separate from modern technology and all its influences.
For example, in Japan, all sorts of traditional rituals serve as spiritual guidance for living a good life and preparing for death, but an end-of-the-century life expectancy is not one of them. It is thought to be unnatural for an individual to live for over 100 years, so people tend not to think about the future. In Europe, however, during the 19th century, life expectancy rose very quickly in France and England. As a result of industrialization and urbanization, there was a rapid increase in child mortality due to conditions like tuberculosis. This resulted in a sharp rise in life expectancy between 1830-1854 (9 years on average), a period which also saw the rise of Enlightenment philosophy and Romanticism.
In Europe, belief in the future, which extended beyond the individual's lifespan, fed into thought at the end of society and nation. In France, people came to believe that they could build something special out of "earth and sky" and that this would most likely be passed on to their children. This led to a robust identification with the French nation (and later with European countries) as it arose throughout history.
Thus, what we have come to term "the future" has changed from something unknown and abstract, with no shape or form until death, to something concrete and observable in its transition from one generation to another. This change in perception of the future has led to current debates on "the future." The world is becoming dependent on technology, and it is this dependence that has made individuals think about the future and wonder what it will bring.
What kind of impact will biotechnology have on humankind? In 2025, we expect that most people will have at least one gene for one disease. For example, you could develop an eye disease, presumably inherited from your parents who had it; in fact, you might inherit your parents' eyesight--a real "shock" if you are also born blind. Or you could develop a skin disease from your parents with a genetic variation that causes blotchy spots on their skins. You might also become an adult with severe, life-threatening eating disorders because your particular genetic makeup makes you "eat" too much.
Such diseases are not just made up--we already know they exist. In the future, however, these diseases will be more common and more diverse due to our greater understanding of genetics and the development of gene therapy as a treatment. We have called this "the age of genetic disease." We believe that biotechnology will begin to change humanity's genetic makeup so that in the future, it will be necessary not only to treat diseases but actually to cure them.
It might also become possible to "design" the genes of individuals to manipulate the body's capabilities. For example, we could make you capable of sailing across an ocean (which people can now do by using an oxygen tank) or flying through the air. We could also increase your memory capacity or improve your senses (such as your hearing). Overall these changes in capabilities are not expected to be central. Still, at some point, it may be possible to enhance your brain so that you will have greater understanding without difficulty and without forgetting things. In most cases, we do not expect such enhancements to cause problems--people should still be able to live their regular lives even while they are "enhanced.
In principle, it is possible to create robots capable of thinking and experiencing emotions and feelings. But, in practice, it won't be easy to make them as flexible as human beings. In other words, we cannot expect that they would be able to love or feel pain in the same way as humans do without being able to experience the same degree of empathy. It is because robots cannot feel emotions, only logic and reasoning. In the future, we will not only see the beginning of biotechnology but also the origin of artificial intelligence--the birthplace of machines who think like human beings.
In this way, we could see a new era in which humans use machines to create new things for themselves. In 2038, say, a computer might be able to create new knowledge, just like people can now. So why should we humans have all the fun? In this way, machines and humans might create something that has never been seen before.
We will examine the future of technology and society as we find ourselves today. What exactly is a "future society"? Some philosophers have defined it as "a society in which all needs are met without any sense of struggle." We believe that by looking at the changing state of technology, one can find an answer to what kind of society this could be.
In the future, most people will no longer be able to rely on agriculture. The changing food production process and the increased need for resources to sustain agriculture have made it difficult for many people to continue subsisting on agricultural products.
Several problems also arise when using land as a source of carbon dioxide. When petroleum is used in agriculture, the soil can lose nitrogen, so farmers must add nutrients during their cultivation season. The cultivation and preservation of crops use a lot of fossil fuels and deplete natural resources. We have called this "the age of environmental degradation."
This environmental problem has already been offset by enormous sums invested into industrialization and urbanization. For example, the amount of energy released in San Francisco over 20 years due to industrial activity exceeds that of energy used in Tokyo. In the future, it is highly likely that this trend will continue and that more power will be needed to sustain urbanization.
The eventual source of this energy will come from nuclear fusion power plants--a form of alternative energy. Fusion reactors have already been constructed and are expected to be implemented shortly. They are expected to become a significant source of global energy production by 2050. No matter what, it seems evident that we cannot continue to rely on oil as our primary fuel source, so we must develop other fuel sources.
In the future, people will not need a sense of identity. Humanity may no longer believe in itself. The reason for this is that we will have become accustomed to living with machines and even to being able to change the structure of our bodies by using biotechnology.
In addition, we may be living in a world where we no longer need to eat. So, in the future, there may not be any such thing as human beings anymore; instead, there will be organisms that consume energy or information to survive. It is a possibility that only time can tell. In many ways, the situation will have changed so much that the idea of human identity may no longer be valid.
I cannot say for sure that this is what will happen in the future. Still, I am convinced that robots and humans working together could create something like a "human society"--a society in which to live and work at meaningfully high levels--and this is something we would all appreciate having happened. I believe we are already starting to see changes such as these brought about by technology.
It is essential to consider this issue from multiple perspectives: not just what the future may look like but how we could contribute ethically to developing technologies. I believe that we have already stepped into a new era in which we will no longer be able to afford merely playing with technologies.
It is easy to destroy things and to cause other people's lives and livelihoods to disappear, as though they did not matter at all. However, it is also possible for us to change the world and save it from those who are destroying it.
We may be able to create the best possible future by using biotechnology and robotics. I believe that we can do this without harming or degrading human beings, but rather that we can help to create more significant opportunities for them. In particular, biotechnology must be developed in a way which remains in harmony with people's senses of aesthetics. The future has already begun.